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{{Cite journal
| المؤلف= ميير، نيكول
| yearالسنة = 2007
| العنوان= سجلات حصاد العنب كبديل لسجلات الحرارة من نيسان إلى آب في سويسرا
| urlالمسار = http://www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/diplom_nmeier.pdf
| accessdateتاريخ الوصول = 2007-12-25
| الناشر= [[جامعة برن]]
| workالعمل = Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern (Thesis of Philosophy and science faculty of the University of Bern)
| quoteاقتباس = Phenological grape harvest observations in Switzerland over the last 500 years have been used as a proxy indicator for reconstructing past temperature variability.
|archiveurlمسار الأرشيف=http://web.archive.org/web/20081217053707/http://www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/diplom_nmeier.pdf|archivedateتاريخ الأرشيف=2008-12-17}}</ref><ref name=Meier2007b>{{Cite journal
| المؤلف= Meier, N.
| مؤلفون مشاركون= Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.
| الصفحات= L20705
| doi = 10.1029/2007GL031381
| urlالمسار = http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031381.shtml
| quoteاقتباس = Phenological grape harvest observations in Switzerland over the last 500 years have been used as a proxy indicator for reconstructing past temperature variability.
| issue = 20
| bibcode=2007GeoRL..3420705M
}}</ref>
In addition to providing a longer historical baseline than instrumental measurements, phenological observations provide high [[temporal resolution]] of ongoing changes related to [[احترار عالمي]].<ref name=Menzel2006>{{Cite journal
| authorالمؤلف = Menzel, A.
| coauthorsالمؤلفين المشاركين = Sparks, T.H.; Estrella, N.; Koch, E.; Aasa, A.; Ahas, R.; Alm-kübler, K.; Bissolli, P.; Braslavská, O.; Briede, A.; Others,
| yearالسنة = 2006
| titleالعنوان = European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern
| journal = Global Change Biology
| volume = 12
| issue = 10
| pagesالصفحات = 1969–1976
| doi = 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x
| quoteاقتباس = One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes.
}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal
| authorالمؤلف = Schwartz, M. D.
| coauthorsالمؤلفين المشاركين = Ahas, R.; Aasa, A.
| yearالسنة = 2006
| titleالعنوان = Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere
| journal = Global Change Biology
| volume = 12
| issue = 2
| pagesالصفحات = 343–351
| doi = 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
| quoteاقتباس = SI first leaf dates, measuring change in the start of ‘early spring’ (roughly the time of shrub budburst and lawn first greening), are getting earlier in nearly all parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The average rate of change over the 1955–2002 period is approximately -1.2 days per decade.
}}</ref>
The concept of [[Growing-degree day]] contributes to our understanding of phenology.
The English naturalists [[Gilbert White]] and [[William Markwick]] reported the seasonal events of more than 400 plant and animal species, Gilbert White in [[Selborne]], Hampshire and William Markwick in [[Battle, Sussex]] over a 25-year period between 1768 and 1793. The data, reported in White's ''[[Natural History and Antiquities of Selborne]]''<ref name=white>White, G (1789) [[The Natural History and Antiquities of Selborne]]</ref> are reported as the earliest and latest dates for each event over 25 years; so annual changes cannot therefore be determined.
 
In Japan and China the time of blossoming of cherry and peach trees is associated with ancient festivals and some of these dates can be traced back to the eighth century. Such historical records may, in principle, be capable of providing estimates of climate at dates before instrumental records became available. For example, records of the harvest dates of the [[pinot noir]] [[عنب]] in [[منطقة بورغندي]] have been used in an attempt to reconstruct spring–summer temperatures from 1370 to 2003;<ref name=Chuine>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Chuine | first1الأول1 = I. | last2الأخير2 = Yiou | first2الأول2 = P. | last3الأخير3 = Viovy | first3الأول3 = N. | last4الأخير4 = Seguin | first4الأول4 = B. | last5الأخير5 = Daux | first5الأول5 = V. | last6 = Le Roy | first6 = Ladurie | yearالسنة = 2004 | titleالعنوان = Grape ripening as a past climate indicator | urlالمسار = http://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/fe/pdf/2004_Nature_432_289_290.pdf | formatالتنسيق = PDF | journal = Nature | volume = 432 | issue = 7015| pagesالصفحات = 289–290 | doi = 10.1038/432289a | pmid = 15549085 |bibcode = 2004Natur.432..289C |archiveurlمسار الأرشيف=http://web.archive.org/web/20060516044139/http://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/fe/pdf/2004_Nature_432_289_290.pdf|archivedateتاريخ الأرشيف=2006-05-16}}</ref><ref name=Keenan2007>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Keenan | first1الأول1 = D.J. | yearالسنة = 2007 | titleالعنوان = Grape harvest dates are poor indicators of summer warmth | urlالمسار = http://www.informath.org/pubs/TAC06a.pdf | formatالتنسيق = PDF | journal = Theoretical and Applied Climatology | volume = 87 | issue = | pagesالصفحات = 255–256 | doi = 10.1007/s00704-006-0197-9 |bibcode = 2007ThApC..87..255K}}</ref> the reconstructed values during 1787–2000 have a correlation with Paris instrumental data of about 0.75.
 
== السجلات الحديثة ==
[[Robert Marsham]] is the founding father of modern phenological recording. Marsham was a wealthy landowner who kept systematic records of "Indications of spring" on his estate at [[Stratton Strawless]], [[نورفولك]], from 1736. These were in the form of dates of the first occurrence of events such as flowering, bud burst, emergence or flight of an insect. Consistent records of the same events or "phenophases" were maintained by generations of the same family over unprecedentedly long periods of time, eventually ending with the death of Mary Marsham in 1958, so that trends can be observed and related to long-term climate records. The data show significant variation in dates which broadly correspond with warm and cold years. Between 1850 and 1950 a long-term trend of gradual climate warming is observable, and during this same period the Marsham record of oak leafing dates tended to become earlier.<ref name="Sparks & Carey">{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Sparks | first1الأول1 = T.H. | last2الأخير2 = Carey | first2الأول2 = P.D. | yearالسنة = 1995 | titleالعنوان = The responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the Marsham phenological record, 1736-1947 | urlالمسار = | journal = Journal of Ecology | volume = 83 | issue = 2| pagesالصفحات = 321–329 | doi = 10.2307/2261570}}</ref>
 
After 1960 the rate of warming accelerated, and this is mirrored by increasing earliness of oak leafing, recorded in the data collected by Jean Combes in Surrey. Over the past 250 years, the first leafing date of oak appears to have advanced by about 8 days, corresponding to overall warming on the order of 1.5&nbsp;°C in the same period.
 
Towards the end of the 19th century the recording of the appearance and development of plants and animals became a national pastime, and between 1891 and 1948 a programme of phenological recording was organised across the British Isles by the [[Royal Meteorological Society]] (RMS). Up to 600 observers submitted returns in some years, with numbers averaging a few hundred. During this period 11 main plant phenophases were consistently recorded over the 58 years from 1891–1948, and a further 14 phenophases were recorded for the 20 years between 1929 and 1948. The returns were summarised each year in the Quarterly Journal of the RMS as ''[[The Phenological Reports]]''. The 58-year data have been summarised by Jeffree (1960),<ref name=Jeffree1960>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Jeffree | first1الأول1 = E.P. | yearالسنة = 1960 | titleالعنوان = Some long-term means from the Phenological reports (1891–1948) of the Royal Meteorological Society | urlالمسار = | journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | volume = 86 | issue = 367| pagesالصفحات = 95–103 | doi = 10.1002/qj.49708636710 |bibcode = 1960QJRMS..86...95J}}</ref> and show that flowering dates could be as many as 21 days early and as many as 34 days late, with extreme earliness greatest in summer flowering species, and extreme lateness in spring flowering species. In all 25 species, the timings of all phenological events are significantly related to temperature,<ref name=Sparks2000>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Sparks | first1الأول1 = T.H. | last2الأخير2 = Jeffree | first2الأول2 = E.P. | last3الأخير3 = Jeffree | first3الأول3 = C.E. | author-separator =, | author-name-separator= | yearالسنة = 2000 | titleالعنوان = An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK | urlالمسار = | journal = International Journal of Biometeorology | volume = 44 | issue = 2| pagesالصفحات = 82–87 | doi = 10.1007/s004840000049 | pmid = 10993562 |bibcode = 2000IJBm...44...82S}}</ref><ref>[https://springerlink3.metapress.com/content/trx39rutgulmbmwn/resource-secured/?target=fulltext.pdf&sid=w4lgorijbyuqsz552uo5bbqb&sh=www.springerlink.com SpringerLink - Abstract<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> indicating that phenological events are likely to get earlier as climate warms.
 
''The Phenological Reports'' ended suddenly in 1948 after 58 years, and Britain was without a national recording scheme for almost 50 years, just at a time when climate change was becoming evident. During this period, important contributions were made by individual dedicated observers. The naturalist and author [[Richard Fitter]] recorded the First Flowering Date (FFD) of 557 species of British flowering plants in Oxfordshire between about 1954 and 1990. Writing in [[ساينس]] in 2002, Richard Fitter and his son [[Alistair Fitter]] found that "the average FFD of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades."<ref name=Fitter2002>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Fitter | first1الأول1 = A.H. | last2الأخير2 = Fitter | first2الأول2 = R.S.R. | author-separator =, | author-name-separator= | yearالسنة = 2002 | titleالعنوان = Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants | urlالمسار = | journal = Science | volume = 296 | issue = 5573| pagesالصفحات = 1689–1691 | doi = 10.1126/science.1071617 | pmid = 12040195 |bibcode = 2002Sci...296.1689F}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|urlالمسار=http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/201/1/fitterah4.pdf |titleالعنوان=Rapid Changes in Flowering Time in British Plants |publisherالناشر=SCIENCE |volume=296 |dateالتاريخ=31 May 2002 |accessdateتاريخ الوصول=2010-05-25|archiveurlمسار الأرشيف=http://web.archive.org/web/20081217053707/http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/201/1/fitterah4.pdf|archivedateتاريخ الأرشيف=2008-12-17}}</ref> They note that FFD is sensitive to temperature, as is generally agreed, that "150 to 200 species may be flowering on average 15 days earlier in Britain now than in the very recent past" and that these earlier FFDs will have "profound ecosystem and evolutionary consequences".
 
In the last decade, national recording in Britain has been resumed by the UK Phenology network [http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk], run by [[Woodland Trust]] and the [[Centre for Ecology and Hydrology]] and the BBC Springwatch survey.<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20070209113737/http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/animals/wildbritain/springwatch/survey.shtml BBC - Science & Nature - UK Wildlife - Springwatch survey<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> There is a USA National Phenology Network [http://www.usanpn.org/] in which both professional scientists and lay recorders participate, a European Phenology Network that has monitoring, research and educational remits<ref>{{Citeمرجع webويب|urlالمسار=http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp |titleالعنوان=European Phenology Network |publisherالناشر=Web.archive.org |dateالتاريخ= |accessdateتاريخ الوصول=2010-05-25 |archiveurlمسار الأرشيف = http://web.archive.org/web/20071222031041/http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp |archivedateتاريخ الأرشيف = 2007-12-22}}</ref> and many other countries such as Canada (Alberta Plantwatch [http://plantwatch.fanweb.ca/] and Saskatchewan PlantWatch<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20080330084910/http://www.naturesask.ca/education_plantwatch.php Nature Saskatchewan : PlantWatch<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>), China and Australia<ref>{{Citeمرجع webويب|urlالمسار=http://www.climatewatch.org.au|titleالعنوان=ClimateWatch|publisherالناشر=EarthWatch Institute Australia|accessdateتاريخ الوصول=28 August 2013}}</ref><ref>[http://www.bio.mq.edu.au/dept/centres/comparative/BioWatch/BioWatch.htm BioWatch Home<!-- Bot generated title -->]{{وصلة مكسورة|تاريخ=أغسطس 2013}}</ref> have phenological programs.
 
In eastern North America, [[almanacs]] are traditionally used for information on action phenology (in agriculture), taking into account the astronomical positions at the time.
The evolution of the vegetation index through time, depicted by the graph above, exhibits a strong [[ارتباط (إحصاء)]] with the typical green vegetation growth stages (emergence, vigor/growth, maturity, and harvest/senescence). These temporal curves are analyzed to extract useful parameters about the vegetation growing season (start of season, end of season, length of [[موسم زراعة]], etc.). Other growing season [[وسيط (رياضيات)]]s could potentially be extracted, and global maps of any of these growing season parameters could then be constructed and used in all sorts of [[تغير المناخ]] studies.
 
A noteworthy example of the use of [[استشعار عن بعد]] based phenology is the work of Ranga Myneni<ref>[http://cybele.bu.edu/people/rmyneni.html Welcome to the Climate and Vegetation Research Group, Boston University<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> from [[جامعة بوسطن]]. This work<ref name=Myeni>{{Cite journal| last1الأخير1 = Myneni | first1الأول1 = RB | last2الأخير2 = Keeling | first2الأول2 = CD | last3الأخير3 = Tucker | first3الأول3 = CJ | last4الأخير4 = Asrar | first4الأول4 = G | last5الأخير5 = Nemani | first5الأول5 = RR | yearالسنة = 1997 | titleالعنوان = Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991 | urlالمسار = | journal = Nature | volume = 386 | issue =6626 | pageالصفحة = 698 |doi=10.1038/386698a0|bibcode = 1997Natur.386..698M}}</ref><ref>[http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v386/n6626/abs/386698a0.html Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> showed an apparent increase in vegetation productivity that most likely resulted from the increase in temperature and lengthening of the growing season in the [[تايغا]].<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20070407143112/http://cliveg.bu.edu/people/rmyneni/portal.cgi.html ISI Web of Knowledge [v3.0&#93;<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Another example based on the [[MODIS]] enhanced vegetation index ([[EVI]]) reported by Alfredo Huete<ref>[http://tbrs.arizona.edu/cdrom/People/WhosWho.html Tbrs, Modis Vi Cd-Rom<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> at [[جامعة أريزونا]] and colleagues showed that the [[غابات الأمازون]], as opposed to the long held view of a monotonous growing season or growth only during the wet rainy season, does in fact exhibit growth spurts during the dry season.<ref name=Huete>{{Cite journal| journal = Geophysical Research Letters |volume=33 |pagesالصفحات= L06405 | urlالمسار=http://ecocast.arc.nasa.gov/pubs/pdfs/2006/Huete_GRL_2006.pdf | doi=10.1029/2005GL025583 | titleالعنوان = Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season | yearالسنة = 2006 | last1الأخير1 = Huete | first1الأول1 = Alfredo R. | last2الأخير2 = Didan | first2الأول2 = Kamel | last3الأخير3 = Shimabukuro | first3الأول3 = Yosio E. | last4الأخير4 = Ratana | first4الأول4 = Piyachat | last5الأخير5 = Saleska | first5الأول5 = Scott R. | last6 = Hutyra | first6 = Lucy R. | last7 = Yang | first7 = Wenze | last8 = Nemani | first8 = Ramakrishna R. | last9 = Myneni | first9 = Ranga | issue = 6 |bibcode = 2006GeoRL..33.6405H}}</ref><ref>{{Citeمرجع webويب|urlالمسار=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/AmazonEVI/|titleالعنوان=Defying Dry: Amazon Greener in Dry Season than Wet|lastالأخير=Lindsey|firstالأول=Rebecca|coauthorsالمؤلفين المشاركين=Robert Simmon|dateالتاريخ=June 30, 2006|workالعمل=[[The Earth Observatory]]|publisherالناشر=EOS Project Science Office, [[مركز جودارد للطيران الفضائي]]|accessdateتاريخ الوصول=29 August 2013}}</ref>
 
However, these phenological parameters are only an approximation of the true biological growth stages. This is mainly due to the limitation of current space based remote sensing, especially the spatial resolution, and the nature of vegetation index. A pixel in an image does not contain a pure target (like a tree, a shrub, etc.) but contains a mixture of whatever intersected the sensor's field of view.