دراسة الأحداث البيولوجية: الفرق بين النسختين

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| work = Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern (Thesis of Philosophy and science faculty of the University of Bern)
| quote = Phenological grape harvest observations in Switzerland over the last 500 years have been used as a proxy indicator for reconstructing past temperature variability.
|archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/web/20081217053707/http://www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/docs/diplom_nmeier.pdf|archivedate=2008-12-17}}</ref><ref name=Meier2007b>{{Cite journal
| المؤلف= Meier, N.
| مؤلفون مشاركون= Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.
The English naturalists [[Gilbert White]] and [[William Markwick]] reported the seasonal events of more than 400 plant and animal species, Gilbert White in [[Selborne]], Hampshire and William Markwick in [[Battle, Sussex]] over a 25-year period between 1768 and 1793. The data, reported in White's ''[[Natural History and Antiquities of Selborne]]''<ref name=white>White, G (1789) [[The Natural History and Antiquities of Selborne]]</ref> are reported as the earliest and latest dates for each event over 25 years; so annual changes cannot therefore be determined.
 
In Japan and China the time of blossoming of cherry and peach trees is associated with ancient festivals and some of these dates can be traced back to the eighth century. Such historical records may, in principle, be capable of providing estimates of climate at dates before instrumental records became available. For example, records of the harvest dates of the [[pinot noir]] [[عنب]] in [[منطقة بورجندي]] have been used in an attempt to reconstruct spring–summer temperatures from 1370 to 2003;<ref name=Chuine>{{Cite journal| last1 = Chuine | first1 = I. | last2 = Yiou | first2 = P. | last3 = Viovy | first3 = N. | last4 = Seguin | first4 = B. | last5 = Daux | first5 = V. | last6 = Le Roy | first6 = Ladurie | year = 2004 | title = Grape ripening as a past climate indicator | url = http://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/fe/pdf/2004_Nature_432_289_290.pdf | format = PDF | journal = Nature | volume = 432 | issue = 7015| pages = 289–290 | doi = 10.1038/432289a | pmid = 15549085 |bibcode = 2004Natur.432..289C |archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/web/20060516044139/http://www.cefe.cnrs.fr/fe/pdf/2004_Nature_432_289_290.pdf|archivedate=2006-05-16}}</ref><ref name=Keenan2007>{{Cite journal| last1 = Keenan | first1 = D.J. | year = 2007 | title = Grape harvest dates are poor indicators of summer warmth | url = http://www.informath.org/pubs/TAC06a.pdf | format = PDF | journal = Theoretical and Applied Climatology | volume = 87 | issue = | pages = 255–256 | doi = 10.1007/s00704-006-0197-9 |bibcode = 2007ThApC..87..255K }}</ref> the reconstructed values during 1787–2000 have a correlation with Paris instrumental data of about 0.75.
 
==السجلات الحديثة==
Towards the end of the 19th century the recording of the appearance and development of plants and animals became a national pastime, and between 1891 and 1948 a programme of phenological recording was organised across the British Isles by the [[Royal Meteorological Society]] (RMS). Up to 600 observers submitted returns in some years, with numbers averaging a few hundred. During this period 11 main plant phenophases were consistently recorded over the 58 years from 1891–1948, and a further 14 phenophases were recorded for the 20 years between 1929 and 1948. The returns were summarised each year in the Quarterly Journal of the RMS as ''[[The Phenological Reports]]''. The 58-year data have been summarised by Jeffree (1960),<ref name=Jeffree1960>{{Cite journal| last1 = Jeffree | first1 = E.P. | year = 1960 | title = Some long-term means from the Phenological reports (1891–1948) of the Royal Meteorological Society | url = | journal = Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | volume = 86 | issue = 367| pages = 95–103 | doi = 10.1002/qj.49708636710 |bibcode = 1960QJRMS..86...95J }}</ref> and show that flowering dates could be as many as 21 days early and as many as 34 days late, with extreme earliness greatest in summer flowering species, and extreme lateness in spring flowering species. In all 25 species, the timings of all phenological events are significantly related to temperature,<ref name=Sparks2000>{{Cite journal| last1 = Sparks | first1 = T.H. | last2 = Jeffree | first2 = E.P. | last3 = Jeffree | first3 = C.E. | author-separator =, | author-name-separator= | year = 2000 | title = An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK | url = | journal = International Journal of Biometeorology | volume = 44 | issue = 2| pages = 82–87 | doi = 10.1007/s004840000049 | pmid = 10993562 |bibcode = 2000IJBm...44...82S }}</ref><ref>[https://springerlink3.metapress.com/content/trx39rutgulmbmwn/resource-secured/?target=fulltext.pdf&sid=w4lgorijbyuqsz552uo5bbqb&sh=www.springerlink.com SpringerLink - Abstract<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> indicating that phenological events are likely to get earlier as climate warms.
 
''The Phenological Reports'' ended suddenly in 1948 after 58 years, and Britain was without a national recording scheme for almost 50 years, just at a time when climate change was becoming evident. During this period, important contributions were made by individual dedicated observers. The naturalist and author [[Richard Fitter]] recorded the First Flowering Date (FFD) of 557 species of British flowering plants in Oxfordshire between about 1954 and 1990. Writing in [[ساينس]] in 2002, Richard Fitter and his son [[Alistair Fitter]] found that "the average FFD of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades."<ref name=Fitter2002>{{Cite journal| last1 = Fitter | first1 = A.H. | last2 = Fitter | first2 = R.S.R. | author-separator =, | author-name-separator= | year = 2002 | title = Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants | url = | journal = Science | volume = 296 | issue = 5573| pages = 1689–1691 | doi = 10.1126/science.1071617 | pmid = 12040195 |bibcode = 2002Sci...296.1689F }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|url=http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/201/1/fitterah4.pdf |title=Rapid Changes in Flowering Time in British Plants |publisher=SCIENCE |volume=296 |date=31 May 2002 |accessdate=2010-05-25|archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/web/20081217053707/http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/201/1/fitterah4.pdf|archivedate=2008-12-17}}</ref> They note that FFD is sensitive to temperature, as is generally agreed, that "150 to 200 species may be flowering on average 15 days earlier in Britain now than in the very recent past" and that these earlier FFDs will have "profound ecosystem and evolutionary consequences".
 
In the last decade, national recording in Britain has been resumed by the UK Phenology network [http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk], run by [[Woodland Trust]] and the [[Centre for Ecology and Hydrology]] and the BBC Springwatch survey.<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20070209113737/http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/animals/wildbritain/springwatch/survey.shtml BBC - Science & Nature - UK Wildlife - Springwatch survey<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> There is a USA National Phenology Network [http://www.usanpn.org/] in which both professional scientists and lay recorders participate, a European Phenology Network that has monitoring, research and educational remits<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp |title=European Phenology Network |publisher=Web.archive.org |date= |accessdate=2010-05-25 |archiveurl = http://web.archive.org/web/20071222031041/http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp |archivedate = 2007-12-22}}</ref> and many other countries such as Canada (Alberta Plantwatch [http://plantwatch.fanweb.ca/] and Saskatchewan PlantWatch<ref>[http://web.archive.org/web/20080330084910/http://www.naturesask.ca/education_plantwatch.php Nature Saskatchewan : PlantWatch<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref>), China and Australia<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.climatewatch.org.au|title=ClimateWatch|publisher=EarthWatch Institute Australia|accessdate=28 August 2013}}</ref><ref>[http://www.bio.mq.edu.au/dept/centres/comparative/BioWatch/BioWatch.htm BioWatch Home<!-- Bot generated title -->]{{وصلة مكسورة|date=August 2013}}</ref> have phenological programs.
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